Unpredictable

Jenson Button, beyond all expectations, clinched the 2009 F1 title. Yes, we have known for weeks that he is the favourite for the crown, but honestly, most of us had only start to believe that midway into the season.

Who would have given a serious thought at the start of the season that the Briton would actually be crowned as champion?  For most, Jenson’s good performances in the initial races were thought to be a flash-in-the-pan, and favourites like Hamiton, Massa, Raikkonen or even Alonso would eventually come good. But the end result just goes to show how we were never that good at predicting.

Button, a “handsome swine”, as what my colleague would call him… no disrepect to the swines.

Inspite of that, I am eternally amused how, over the years, many of my friends had tried to devise a “perfect” methology for football betting. They were totally convinced that there is a secret to beat the system and all they have to do is find it. I am always tempted to agree with them when I see them raking in the bucks, until the proverbial Black Swan hit and they lost everything they won, plus a few more.

In the aftermath, they would almost always tell me how they overlooked certain factors or how their emotions got the better of them or how Ronaldo’s injury did them in… but never would they admit that it was just impossible to predict the result of something as dynamic as a football game.

I mean, football is not something that we can crunch the numbers and derived a scientific analysis out of it. Look, what can we tell when Sunderland beat Liverpool 0-1? Does that mean Sunderland is a better team than Liverpool? (I am tempted to say yes to this)

It just meant Sunderland scored 1 goal and Liverpool did not. For all we know (I didn’t watched the game), Liverpool could be having 99 shots at goal, enjoying 99% of posession (not possible, I know) and failed to score but yet, conceded an unlucky (or lucky, depending on your perspective) on their end. 

If we really read into the stats instead of just the scoreline, we would be able to gain a clearer picture of the game itself, but again, even that would not be enough for us to predict whether Liverpool would win, lose or draw in their next match. But, strangely, for some punters, it would be a sure ”sign” that they should avoid Liverpool in their next away game.

But anyway, I am sure Liverpool will lose their next game, because they will be facing Manchester United, and Owen would score…. haha… Humans just won’t change, would we?     

My prediction of the expression of Liverpool’s players after the coming game against Man United.